Islam versus Europe

It looks as though Western governments are preparing to intervene militarily in Libya's civil war. Gaddafi has bizarrely announced a cease-fire but most likely this is just a distracting manoeuvre designed to throw the west off balance. All the indications are that the fighting will continue as before.

While Gaddafi is obviously an evil dictator, it's not clear that western interests will be served by overthrowing him.

There are three things the West wants from any Libyan regime:

1) Keep the African hordes out of Europe
2) Keep the jihadis repressed
3) Keep the oil flowing

Gaddafi has done all of these things to an acceptable degree. It's not clear that any regime which replaced him would do them so well. In particular, the following research, quoted by David Frum in the Daily Telegraph, offers grounds for serious reflection:

For the past few days, Washington policy circles have been worrying over a piece of research circulated last week: "On a per capita basis … twice as many foreign fighters came to Iraq from Libya – and specifically eastern Libya – than from any other country in the Arabic-speaking world. Libyans were apparently more fired up to travel to Iraq to kill Americans than anyone else in the Middle East. And 84.1 per cent [74] of the 88 Libyan fighters … who listed their hometowns came from either Benghazi or Darnah in Libya's east."

It is the strength of the jihadi element there that may account for the hostile reception given to the British SAS/MI6 contingent a week or so ago. The Libyan rebels have been seen shouting "Allahu Akbar" (Allah is Greater). None of this gives grounds for optimism.

The one good thing about Islam is that Muslims seem to enjoy killing each other almost as much as they do infidels. In Libya, we should leave them to it.